NRL Round 14 starts on Friday, June 11, with an NRL double, but of course all eyes this week are on the State of Origin match between Queensland and NSW on Wednesday night in Townsville.
This week we recommend keeping your powder dry until Friday morning, as the fallout from Origin as far as injuries and players being rested go can have a huge influence on results in the following NRL round.
More: NRL betting guide
NRL match betting previews and tips
Some players are able to back successfully and play again just 48 hours after a tough Origin (and they are all brutal contests), while others will be injured or given the match off to rest.
Of course it’s clubs such as ladder leaders Penrith, who play Friday night, and their nearest challengers Souths (Saturday evening) and Melbourne Storm (Sunday) who have the most players involved in Origin.
It was plain for all to see what impact Origin has as the Panthers, minus seven Origin reps, were thrashed 26-6 by the Wests Tigers last Friday night in what was their first loss for the season.
Having a huge Origin contingent is a price you pay for developing a dominant NRL side, and clubs such as the Storm and Roosters are far more accustomed to dealing with the challenges of this period.
In the early betting markets we like the look of outsiders North Queensland against Manly, but only at the juicy odds on offer early in the week. The Sea Eagles seem unlikely to risk superstar Tom Trbojevic on Friday given his hamstring issues from last season and early this year. He is simply too valuable to their chances overall.
NRL Premiership odds before Round 14
There were only four matches in round 13, and there was little movement in the premiership market, with the Panthers retaining pole position despite their loss to the Wests Tigers when they fielded a depleted side.
Melbourne Storm have a strong non-Origin contingent of mainly Kiwis so should come through this period well and they firmed slight from $3.40 to $3.30, while Parramatta were $10 to $8 and likewise should not be too badly affected by missing players.
Manly were $18 to $20 and that is where the title chances end, according to bookies.
The Titans moved from $101 to $61 despite a loss, while the Wests Tigers firmed from $251 into $101. The Broncos went the other way from $101 to $251.
NRL title odds 2021
$2.70 Penrith Panthers
$3.30 Melbourne Storm
$7 South Sydney Rabbitohs
$8 Parramatta Eels
$12 Sydney Roosters
$20 Manly Sea Eagles
$61 Gold Coast Titans,
$71 Canberra Raiders
$81 St George Illawarra Dragons
$101 New Zealand Warriors, Newcastle Knights, North Queensland Cowboys, Cronulla Sharks, Wests Tigers
$251 Brisbane Broncos
$1001 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
NRL Round 14 fixture, odds and times
Friday, June 11
- 6pm: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles $1.31 v North Queensland $3.40
- 7.55pm: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks $3.40 v Penrith Panthers $1.31
Saturday, June 12
- 3pm: Gold Coast Titans $3.75 v Sydney Roosters $1.27
- 5.30pm: South Sydney Rabbitohs $1.15 v Newcastle Knights $5.50
- 7.35pm: Canberra Raiders $1.35 v Brisbane Broncos $3.15
Sunday, June 13
- 2pm: New Zealand Warriors $4.75 v Melbourne Storm $1.18
- 4.05pm: Parramatta Eels $1.28 v Wests Tigers $3.70
Monday, June 14
- 4pm: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs $4.45 v St George Illawarra Dragons $1.20
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